The total cost of completing the Rogun hydropower plant in Tajikistan has risen to $6.4 billion, with the project now expected to be completed by 2035. The updated figure was revealed in Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings’ justification for Tajikistan’s sovereign rating, based on official data provided by the country’s relevant ministries and departments.
Photo: The Rogun HPP is expected to be completed by 2035.
Source: Rogun HPP
The Government of Tajikistan is currently in discussions with a consortium of multilateral and bilateral lenders to secure a financing package that would cover approximately 50% of the total cost. The remaining funds are expected to come from the state budget and revenues generated by the Rogun HPP, which is already partially operational.
According to S&P analysts, the proposed external financing includes $1.73 billion in semi-concessional loans, $850 million in grants and $390 million in concessional loans. This financing package is expected to become available after Tajikistan finalizes power supply agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2024-2025.
Once construction is complete, approximately 60% of the electricity generated is expected to be exported to Central Asian countries, making a significant contribution to Tajikistan’s energy sector and economy.
In 2023, Tajikistan has allocated TJS 2.5 billion ($236 million or 2.0% of GDP) for the construction of the Rogun HPP. This level of spending is expected to continue until the project’s completion in 2035. S&P’s experts point out that the Rogun HPP currently generates about 10-15% of its total capacity, with projected revenues from electricity sales estimated at $1.1 billion between 2024 and 2035. These revenues are expected to be reinvested in further construction of the plant.